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Karpaty Krosno vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
8/26/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno35%
×Draw26%
Czarni Połaniec40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.30
Czarni Połaniec
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
60%
Karpaty Krosno or Czarni Połaniec
74%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
65%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
15%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
73%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
37%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
14%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
76%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
41%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
47%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.30

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
35%
level
26%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
40%

Czarni Połaniec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Karpaty Krosno 0–1 Czarni Połaniec

Czarni Połaniec beat Karpaty Krosno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.