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Czarni Połaniec vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
0 – 1
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Czarni Połaniec59%
×Draw21%
Karpaty Krosno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
2.10
Karpaty Krosno
1.16

Czarni Połaniec creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
80%
Czarni Połaniec or Karpaty Krosno
79%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
41%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
36%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
88%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
62%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
35%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
69%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
32%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
74%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
59%
level
21%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
20%

Czarni Połaniec at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Czarni Połaniec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Czarni Połaniec 0–1 Karpaty Krosno

Karpaty Krosno beat Czarni Połaniec 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.