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Karpaty Krosno vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
9/30/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno24%
×Draw25%
Chełmianka Chełm51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
1.00
Chełmianka Chełm
1.60

Chełmianka Chełm creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
49%
Karpaty Krosno or Chełmianka Chełm
75%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
76%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
8%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
63%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
26%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
8%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
80%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
47%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
32%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.00

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
24%
level
25%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
51%

Chełmianka Chełm at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Karpaty Krosno 3–4 Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Karpaty Krosno 4-3 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.