Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chełmianka Chełm vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
4/27/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm61%
×Draw20%
Karpaty Krosno18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
2.12
Karpaty Krosno
1.06

Chełmianka Chełm creates 100% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
82%
Chełmianka Chełm or Karpaty Krosno
80%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
39%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
38%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
88%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
62%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
35%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
65%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
29%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
77%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.12

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
61%
level
20%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
18%

Chełmianka Chełm at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 6–0 Karpaty Krosno

Chełmianka Chełm beat Karpaty Krosno 6-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.