Karpaty Krosno 2–3 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Karpaty Krosno

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Avia Świdnik

5/4/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno19%

×Draw24%

Avia Świdnik57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty KrosnoExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.68

Karpaty Krosno

0.85

Avia Świdnik

1.68

Avia Świdnik creates 98% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

0.59

creates per match

1.89

1.47

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno

0.59

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno

1.47

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw

43%

Karpaty Krosno or Avia Świdnik

76%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

81%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

6%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

57%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

21%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

5%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

81%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

50%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

25%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more

19%

level

24%

Avia Świdnik scores more

57%

Avia Świdnik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff