Avia Świdnik 0–1 Karpaty Krosno: Result & Stats

Avia Świdnik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Karpaty Krosno

10/7/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Avia Świdnik68%

×Draw18%

Karpaty Krosno14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avia ŚwidnikExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Krosno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.96

Avia Świdnik

2.36

Karpaty Krosno

0.96

Avia Świdnik creates 146% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

2.24

creates per match

0.94

0.98

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Avia Świdnik

2.24

Karpaty Krosno

0.94

allows per match

Avia Świdnik

0.98

Karpaty Krosno

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Karpaty Krosno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw

86%

Avia Świdnik or Karpaty Krosno

82%

Draw or Karpaty Krosno

32%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

45%

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

90%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

68%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

41%

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

62%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

25%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

83%

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more

68%

level

18%

Karpaty Krosno scores more

14%

Avia Świdnik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff