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Karpaty Halych vs Dinaz Vyshhorod — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
9/11/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 8Stadion Enerhetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Karpaty Halych45%
×Draw27%
Dinaz Vyshhorod28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Halych
1.41
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.06

Karpaty Halych creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 47 away

creates per match

Karpaty Halych
1.45
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.26

allows per match

Karpaty Halych
0.86
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.36

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par
Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw
72%
Karpaty Halych or Dinaz Vyshhorod
73%
Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod
55%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
22%
Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
76%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
41%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
17%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
65%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
29%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
61%
Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.26 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more
45%
level
27%
Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
28%

Karpaty Halych at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty Halych vs Dinaz Vyshhorod

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Karpaty Halych 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Enerhetik in Burshtyn.