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Dinaz Vyshhorod vs Karpaty Halych — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
10/17/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 7Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod40%
×Draw24%
Karpaty Halych36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.56
Karpaty Halych
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.67
Karpaty Halych
1.65

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.30
Karpaty Halych
1.45

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par
Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

Karpaty Halych →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw
64%
Dinaz Vyshhorod or Karpaty Halych
76%
Draw or Karpaty Halych
60%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
20%
Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
79%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
46%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
21%
Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
77%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
43%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
52%
Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.67 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
40%
level
24%
Karpaty Halych scores more
36%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinaz Vyshhorod vs Karpaty Halych

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Karpaty Halych 3-2 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demidov.