Karpaty Halych 2–1 AFSK Kyiv: Result & Stats

Karpaty Halych

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AFSK Kyiv

9/4/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 7Stadion Enerhetik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Karpaty Halych64%

×Draw23%

AFSK Kyiv13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty HalychExpected goals in this matchAFSK Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.59

Karpaty Halych

1.69

AFSK Kyiv

0.59

Karpaty Halych creates 186% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

1.45

creates per match

0.33

0.86

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Karpaty Halych

1.45

AFSK Kyiv

0.33

allows per match

Karpaty Halych

0.86

AFSK Kyiv

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Halych ↓

AFSK Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Karpaty Halych or draw

87%

Karpaty Halych or AFSK Kyiv

77%

Draw or AFSK Kyiv

36%

Winning margin

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

37%

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

82%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

50%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

24%

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals

45%

AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals

12%

AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

84%

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Halych at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

AFSK Kyiv away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Halych attack 1.45 + AFSK Kyiv defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.33 + Karpaty Halych defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Karpaty Halych scores more

64%

level

23%

AFSK Kyiv scores more

13%

Karpaty Halych at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff