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AFSK Kyiv vs Karpaty Halych — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

AFSK Kyiv
AFSK Kyiv
CANC
14:00
Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
4/2/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 22Stadion AFSC Kyiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFSK Kyiv20%
×Draw22%
Karpaty Halych58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFSK Kyiv
1.01
Karpaty Halych
1.90

Karpaty Halych creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

AFSK Kyiv
0.57
Karpaty Halych
1.65

allows per match

AFSK Kyiv
2.14
Karpaty Halych
1.45

finishing

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par
Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFSK Kyiv ↓

Karpaty Halych →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AFSK Kyiv or draw
42%
AFSK Kyiv or Karpaty Halych
78%
Draw or Karpaty Halych
80%

Winning margin

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+
7%
Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals
64%
AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals
27%
AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals
8%
Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
85%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
56%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)
25%
Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFSK Kyiv at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.57 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.01

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + AFSK Kyiv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AFSK Kyiv scores more
20%
level
22%
Karpaty Halych scores more
58%

Karpaty Halych at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFSK Kyiv vs Karpaty Halych — Match Preview

AFSK Kyiv face Karpaty Halych on April 2, 2022 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

AFSK Kyiv host Karpaty Halych at Stadion AFSC Kyiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.