Karonga United 3–1 Ntopwa: Result & Stats

Karonga United

FT

3 – 1

Ntopwa

5/23/2021

Super League · Round 13Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karonga United58%

×Draw25%

Ntopwa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karonga UnitedExpected goals in this matchNtopwa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.76

Karonga United

1.63

Ntopwa

0.76

Karonga United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 16 away

1.26

creates per match

0.69

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Karonga United

1.26

Ntopwa

0.69

allows per match

Karonga United

0.83

Ntopwa

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par

Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Ntopwa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw

83%

Karonga United or Ntopwa

75%

Draw or Ntopwa

42%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+

32%

Ntopwa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals

80%

Karonga United 2+ goals

48%

Karonga United 3+ goals

22%

Ntopwa 1+ goals

53%

Ntopwa 2+ goals

18%

Ntopwa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)

77%

Ntopwa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karonga United scores more

58%

level

25%

Ntopwa scores more

17%

Karonga United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff