Ntopwa 1–0 Karonga United: Result & Stats

Ntopwa

FT

1 – 0

Karonga United

1/10/2021

Super League · Round 6Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa39%

×Draw27%

Karonga United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NtopwaExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Ntopwa

1.27

Karonga United

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

1.11

creates per match

0.80

1.53

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ntopwa

1.11

Karonga United

0.80

allows per match

Ntopwa

1.53

Karonga United

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw

66%

Ntopwa or Karonga United

73%

Draw or Karonga United

61%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+

17%

Karonga United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals

72%

Ntopwa 2+ goals

36%

Ntopwa 3+ goals

14%

Karonga United 1+ goals

69%

Karonga United 2+ goals

33%

Karonga United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)

53%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Karonga United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Karonga United attack 0.80 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ntopwa scores more

39%

level

27%

Karonga United scores more

34%

Ntopwa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ntopwa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.