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Karonga United vs Bangwe All Stars — Super League 2026

Karonga United
Karonga United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
5/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karonga United51%
×Draw28%
Bangwe All Stars21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karonga United
1.36
Bangwe All Stars
0.78

Karonga United creates 74% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

Karonga United
1.26
Bangwe All Stars
0.73

allows per match

Karonga United
0.83
Bangwe All Stars
1.47

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par
Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Bangwe All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw
79%
Karonga United or Bangwe All Stars
72%
Draw or Bangwe All Stars
49%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+
24%
Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals
74%
Karonga United 2+ goals
39%
Karonga United 3+ goals
16%
Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
54%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
18%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)
70%
Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 81 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.26 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karonga United scores more
51%
level
28%
Bangwe All Stars scores more
21%

Karonga United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Karonga United 1–2 Bangwe All Stars

Bangwe All Stars beat Karonga United 2-1 in Super League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.