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Bangwe All Stars vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karonga United
Karonga United
4/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars46%
×Draw29%
Karonga United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangwe All Stars
1.25
Karonga United
0.83

Bangwe All Stars creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars
1.07
Karonga United
0.80

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars
0.87
Karonga United
1.42

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw
75%
Bangwe All Stars or Karonga United
71%
Draw or Karonga United
54%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
21%
Karonga United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
71%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
36%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
13%
Karonga United 1+ goals
56%
Karonga United 2+ goals
20%
Karonga United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
65%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Karonga United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Karonga United attack 0.80 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more
46%
level
29%
Karonga United scores more
25%

Bangwe All Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangwe All Stars vs Karonga United

Bangwe All Stars and Karonga United drew 1-1 in Super League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.