Karnobat 2–0 Izvor Gorski izvor: Result & Stats

Karnobat

FT

2 – 0

Izvor Gorski izvor

5/15/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 32Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karnobat32%

×Draw26%

Izvor Gorski izvor42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarnobatExpected goals in this matchIzvor Gorski izvor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.40

Karnobat

1.19

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.40

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.88

1.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Karnobat

1.13

Izvor Gorski izvor

0.88

allows per match

Karnobat

1.91

Izvor Gorski izvor

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw

58%

Karnobat or Izvor Gorski izvor

74%

Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor

68%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+

13%

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals

70%

Karnobat 2+ goals

33%

Karnobat 3+ goals

12%

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals

75%

Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals

41%

Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)

43%

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karnobat scores more

32%

level

26%

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more

42%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff