Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Izvor Gorski izvor vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
1 – 1
Karnobat
Karnobat
11/14/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 15Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor68%
×Draw19%
Karnobat13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
2.12
Karnobat
0.80

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 165% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 118 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
87%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Karnobat
81%
Draw or Karnobat
32%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
43%
Karnobat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
88%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
62%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
35%
Karnobat 1+ goals
55%
Karnobat 2+ goals
19%
Karnobat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
84%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.12

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
68%
level
19%
Karnobat scores more
13%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Izvor Gorski izvor vs Karnobat

Izvor Gorski izvor and Karnobat drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.