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Karnobat vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
CANC
13:00
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
3/1/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Karnobat42%
×Draw23%
FK Svilengrad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.76
FK Svilengrad
1.59

Karnobat creates 11% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 18 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
65%
Karnobat or FK Svilengrad
77%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
58%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
22%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
83%
Karnobat 2+ goals
52%
Karnobat 3+ goals
26%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
80%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
47%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
55%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.76

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karnobat scores more
42%
level
23%
FK Svilengrad scores more
35%

Karnobat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karnobat face FK Svilengrad (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Karnobat hosting FK Svilengrad. Match starts March 1, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Karnobat host FK Svilengrad at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.