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FK Svilengrad vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Karnobat
Karnobat
8/17/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 3Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad64%
×Draw18%
Karnobat18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Svilengrad
2.53
Karnobat
1.29

FK Svilengrad creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

creates per match

FK Svilengrad
2.47
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

FK Svilengrad
1.79
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw
82%
FK Svilengrad or Karnobat
82%
Draw or Karnobat
36%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
42%
Karnobat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
92%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
71%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
46%
Karnobat 1+ goals
72%
Karnobat 2+ goals
37%
Karnobat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
78%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.53

Karnobat attack 0.79 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more
64%
level
18%
Karnobat scores more
18%

FK Svilengrad at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Svilengrad 3–2 Karnobat

FK Svilengrad beat Karnobat 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.