Karnobat 2–0 FK Sliven: Result & Stats

Karnobat

FT

2 – 0

FK Sliven

10/15/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Karnobat61%

×Draw19%

FK Sliven21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarnobatExpected goals in this matchFK Sliven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.43

Karnobat

2.52

FK Sliven

1.43

Karnobat creates 76% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

1.13

creates per match

0.95

1.91

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Karnobat

1.13

FK Sliven

0.95

allows per match

Karnobat

1.91

FK Sliven

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

FK Sliven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw

79%

Karnobat or FK Sliven

81%

Draw or FK Sliven

39%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+

40%

FK Sliven wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals

92%

Karnobat 2+ goals

71%

Karnobat 3+ goals

45%

FK Sliven 1+ goals

76%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

42%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)

75%

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.52

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Karnobat scores more

61%

level

19%

FK Sliven scores more

21%

Karnobat at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff