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FK Sliven vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
0 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
9/11/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven56%
×Draw21%
Karnobat24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
2.13
Karnobat
1.33

FK Sliven creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 118 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
76%
FK Sliven or Karnobat
79%
Draw or Karnobat
44%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
33%
Karnobat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
88%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
63%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
35%
Karnobat 1+ goals
74%
Karnobat 2+ goals
38%
Karnobat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
70%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Karnobat attack 0.79 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FK Sliven scores more
56%
level
21%
Karnobat scores more
24%

FK Sliven at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sliven vs Karnobat

FK Sliven and Karnobat drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.