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Karnobat vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
0 – 3
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3/15/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Karnobat21%
×Draw23%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.04
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.86

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 79% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 99 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
44%
Karnobat or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
77%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
79%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
8%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
65%
Karnobat 2+ goals
28%
Karnobat 3+ goals
9%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
84%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
55%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Karnobat scores more
21%
level
23%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
56%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Karnobat 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.