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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
8/31/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Stadion Ivan Pritargov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas79%
×Draw14%
Karnobat7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.67
Karnobat
0.67

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 299% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 118 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.75
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.55
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
93%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Karnobat
86%
Draw or Karnobat
21%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
58%
Karnobat wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
93%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
74%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
49%
Karnobat 1+ goals
49%
Karnobat 2+ goals
15%
Karnobat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
92%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.67

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
79%
level
14%
Karnobat scores more
7%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 7–0 Karnobat

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Karnobat 7-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Pritargov in Burgas.