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Karnobat vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
0 – 3
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
4/5/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Karnobat41%
×Draw24%
Botev Plovdiv III36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.65
Botev Plovdiv III
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 19 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
64%
Karnobat or Botev Plovdiv III
76%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
59%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
21%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
81%
Karnobat 2+ goals
49%
Karnobat 3+ goals
23%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
78%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
45%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
53%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karnobat scores more
41%
level
24%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
36%

Karnobat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Botev Plovdiv III

Botev Plovdiv III beat Karnobat 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.