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Botev Plovdiv III vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Karnobat
Karnobat
9/29/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 9Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III56%
×Draw22%
Karnobat21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv III
1.90
Karnobat
1.08

Botev Plovdiv III creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.21
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.37
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw
79%
Botev Plovdiv III or Karnobat
78%
Draw or Karnobat
44%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
33%
Karnobat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
85%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
56%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
29%
Karnobat 1+ goals
66%
Karnobat 2+ goals
29%
Karnobat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
73%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more
56%
level
22%
Karnobat scores more
21%

Botev Plovdiv III at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv III vs Karnobat

Karnobat beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.