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Karmiotissa vs Apoel Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
10/28/20231. Division1. Division · Round 9Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Karmiotissa28%
×Draw25%
Apoel Nicosia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karmiotissa
1.13
Apoel Nicosia
1.56

Apoel Nicosia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 120 away

creates per match

Karmiotissa
1.13
Apoel Nicosia
1.39

allows per match

Karmiotissa
1.73
Apoel Nicosia
1.14

finishing

Karmiotissa+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karmiotissa ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Karmiotissa or draw
53%
Karmiotissa or Apoel Nicosia
75%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
72%

Winning margin

Karmiotissa wins by 2+
11%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Karmiotissa 1+ goals
68%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
31%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
11%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
79%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
46%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
37%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karmiotissa at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 77 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karmiotissa attack 1.13 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + Karmiotissa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karmiotissa scores more
28%
level
25%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
47%

Apoel Nicosia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karmiotissa vs Apoel Nicosia

Apoel Nicosia beat Karmiotissa 2-1 in 1. Division on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.