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Apoel Nicosia vs Karmiotissa — 1. Division 2019

Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
2/1/20241. Division1. Division · Round 22Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Apoel Nicosia60%
×Draw23%
Karmiotissa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apoel Nicosia
1.81
Karmiotissa
0.86

Apoel Nicosia creates 110% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 76 away

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia
1.61
Karmiotissa
0.96

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia
0.76
Karmiotissa
2.01

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw
82%
Apoel Nicosia or Karmiotissa
77%
Draw or Karmiotissa
40%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
34%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
84%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
54%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
27%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
58%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
21%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
77%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.81

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more
60%
level
23%
Karmiotissa scores more
18%

Apoel Nicosia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Apoel Nicosia 4–1 Karmiotissa

Apoel Nicosia beat Karmiotissa 4-1 in 1. Division on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.