Karmiotissa 1–3 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Karmiotissa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AEK Larnaca

2/4/2023

1. Division · Round 22Tsirion Athlítiko Kentro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Karmiotissa27%

×Draw26%

AEK Larnaca47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarmiotissaExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.51

Karmiotissa

1.09

AEK Larnaca

1.51

AEK Larnaca creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 118 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

1.73

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Karmiotissa

1.13

AEK Larnaca

1.29

allows per match

Karmiotissa

1.73

AEK Larnaca

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karmiotissa+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karmiotissa ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Karmiotissa or draw

53%

Karmiotissa or AEK Larnaca

74%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

73%

Winning margin

Karmiotissa wins by 2+

11%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Karmiotissa 1+ goals

66%

Karmiotissa 2+ goals

30%

Karmiotissa 3+ goals

10%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

78%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

44%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)

37%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karmiotissa at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 77 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karmiotissa attack 1.13 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Karmiotissa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karmiotissa scores more

27%

level

26%

AEK Larnaca scores more

47%

AEK Larnaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff