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AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa — 1. Division 2019

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karmiotissa
Karmiotissa
11/25/20241. Division1. Division · Round 11AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AEK Larnaca60%
×Draw22%
Karmiotissa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.88
Karmiotissa
0.93

AEK Larnaca creates 102% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 76 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
1.74
Karmiotissa
0.96

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Karmiotissa
2.01

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Karmiotissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
82%
AEK Larnaca or Karmiotissa
78%
Draw or Karmiotissa
40%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
35%
Karmiotissa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
85%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
56%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
29%
Karmiotissa 1+ goals
61%
Karmiotissa 2+ goals
24%
Karmiotissa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
77%
Karmiotissa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
60%
level
22%
Karmiotissa scores more
18%

AEK Larnaca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa

AEK Larnaca beat Karmiotissa 2-0 in 1. Division on November 25, 2024.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.