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Karlsruher SC vs Hertha Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
4/21/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Karlsruher SC43%
×Draw23%
Hertha Berlin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.78
Hertha Berlin
1.57

Karlsruher SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
Hertha Berlin
1.69

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
Hertha Berlin
1.76

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
66%
Karlsruher SC or Hertha Berlin
77%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
57%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
23%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
83%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
53%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
26%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
46%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
56%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.78

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
43%
level
23%
Hertha Berlin scores more
34%

Karlsruher SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC 3–2 Hertha Berlin

Karlsruher SC beat Hertha Berlin 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.