Hertha BSC 3–1 Karlsruher SC: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karlsruher SC

3/29/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC44%

×Draw24%

Karlsruher SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.34

Hertha BSC

1.63

Karlsruher SC

1.34

Hertha BSC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

1.55

creates per match

1.43

1.25

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.55

Karlsruher SC

1.43

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.25

Karlsruher SC

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

Karlsruher SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

68%

Hertha BSC or Karlsruher SC

76%

Draw or Karlsruher SC

56%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

23%

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

80%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

48%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

22%

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

74%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

39%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

58%

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

44%

level

24%

Karlsruher SC scores more

32%

Hertha BSC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff