Karlsruher SC 4–2 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

Karlsruher SC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Hamburger SV

3/12/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 24BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Karlsruher SC38%

×Draw24%

Hamburger SV38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SCExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

Karlsruher SC

1.59

Hamburger SV

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

1.80

creates per match

1.74

1.45

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Karlsruher SC

1.80

Hamburger SV

1.74

allows per match

Karlsruher SC

1.45

Hamburger SV

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw

62%

Karlsruher SC or Hamburger SV

76%

Draw or Hamburger SV

62%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

19%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

80%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

47%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

21%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

80%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

47%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

50%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + Hamburger SV defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hamburger SV attack 1.74 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more

38%

level

24%

Hamburger SV scores more

38%

Karlsruher SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff