Hamburger SV 3–4 Karlsruher SC: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Karlsruher SC

1/28/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 19Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Hamburger SV52%

×Draw22%

Karlsruher SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.28

Hamburger SV

1.91

Karlsruher SC

1.28

Hamburger SV creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

2.10

creates per match

1.43

1.13

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.10

Karlsruher SC

1.43

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.13

Karlsruher SC

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Karlsruher SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

74%

Hamburger SV or Karlsruher SC

78%

Draw or Karlsruher SC

48%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

30%

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

85%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

57%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

30%

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

72%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

37%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

67%

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

52%

level

22%

Karlsruher SC scores more

26%

Hamburger SV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff