Karlsruher SC U19 1–6 Hoffenheim U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 3

Hoffenheim U19

2/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1937%

×Draw21%

Hoffenheim U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.03

Karlsruher SC U19

1.92

Hoffenheim U19

2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

2.07

creates per match

2.68

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.07

Hoffenheim U19

2.68

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.37

Hoffenheim U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

58%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Hoffenheim U19

79%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

63%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

85%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

57%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

30%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

87%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

60%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.07 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.68 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

42%

Hoffenheim U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff