Hoffenheim U19 4–2 Karlsruher SC U19

Hoffenheim U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Karlsruher SC U19

8/19/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hoffenheim U1957%

×Draw19%

Karlsruher SC U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.53

Hoffenheim U19

2.42

Karlsruher SC U19

1.53

Hoffenheim U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

3.14

creates per match

1.70

1.36

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.14

Karlsruher SC U19

1.70

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Karlsruher SC U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

76%

Hoffenheim U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

81%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

43%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

36%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

91%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

69%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

43%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

78%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

45%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.70 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.14 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.42

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.70 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

24%

Hoffenheim U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff