Karlsruher SC U19 4–1 Borussia Dortmund U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

M. Mutz 82'

J. Manai 46'

N. Behr 45+1', 42'

N. Cherny 60' (pen)

4/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 7Arthur-Beier-Stadion im Wildparkareal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1933%

×Draw22%

Borussia Dortmund U1945%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.96

Karlsruher SC U19

1.64

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.96

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 66 away

2.10

creates per match

2.59

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.10

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.59

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.33

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

55%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

78%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

67%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

16%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

81%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

49%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

23%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

86%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

58%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.10 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.64

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.59 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

45%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

N. Behr

45+1'

N. Behr

46'

A. Niziołek← S. Inácio

46'

M. Albert← T. Degener

46'

V. Cena← T. Etcibasi

46'

J. Manai

54'

M. Şen← D. Zor

56'

D. Castel-Branco← P. Kegni

60'

N. ChernyPenalty

66'

M. Mutz← E. Laghrissi

81'

O. Błaszczyk← Ousmane Diallo

82'

M. Mutz

83'

B. El-Dor← T. Schunck

83'

L. Batolov← L. Parduzi

83'

L. Rega← N. Behr

83'

S. Guggenbühler← K. Çırpan

Karlsruher

Borussia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Behr

▼

Laghrissi

Manager: R. Kettemann

54'▲M. Şen←▼D. Zor

66'▲M. Mutz←▼E. Laghrissi

83'▲B. El-Dor←▼T. Schunck

83'▲L. Batolov←▼L. Parduzi

83'▲L. Rega←▼N. Behr

83'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼K. Çırpan

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

ŞenMutzEl-DorBatolovRegaGuggenbühlerRetter

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲A. Niziołek←▼S. Inácio

46'▲M. Albert←▼T. Degener

46'▲V. Cena←▼T. Etcibasi

56'▲D. Castel-Branco←▼P. Kegni

81'▲O. Błaszczyk←▼Ousmane Diallo

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

NiziołekAlbertCenaCastel-BrancoBłaszczykHeld

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 2, 2025.

Goals: N. Behr (42', 45+1'), J. Manai (46'), N. Cherny (60' pen), M. Mutz (82').

The match was played at Arthur-Beier-Stadion im Wildparkareal in Karlsruhe.

Karlsruher SC U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19