Borussia Dortmund U19 1–0 Karlsruher SC U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karlsruher SC U19

Ousmane Diallo 32'

2/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1958%

×Draw20%

Karlsruher SC U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.33

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.28

Karlsruher SC U19

1.33

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 74 away

2.97

creates per match

1.73

0.93

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.97

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.93

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

78%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

80%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

42%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

37%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

90%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

66%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

39%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

74%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

38%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.28

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

22%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Reggiani← T. Meiser

32'

Ousmane Diallo

46'

T. Etcibasi← S. Inácio

55'

M. Albert← Ousmane Diallo

59'

S. Guggenbühler← M. Kritzer

70'

P. Kegni← D. Ngambia

70'

T. Degener← E. Benkara

73'

B. El-Dor← M. Şen

73'

T. Schunck← D. Zor

83'

F. Braun← K. Çırpan

83'

M. Mutz← D. Mitakidis

83'

Y. Müller← N. Behr

Borussia

Karlsruher

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Diallo

▼

Inácio

Manager: M. Tullberg

28'▲L. Reggiani←▼T. Meiser

46'▲T. Etcibasi←▼S. Inácio

55'▲M. Albert←▼Ousmane Diallo

70'▲P. Kegni←▼D. Ngambia

70'▲T. Degener←▼E. Benkara

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

ReggianiEtcibasiAlbertKegniDegenerHeldAdamczyk

Manager: R. Kettemann

59'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼M. Kritzer

73'▲B. El-Dor←▼M. Şen

73'▲T. Schunck←▼D. Zor

83'▲F. Braun←▼K. Çırpan

83'▲M. Mutz←▼D. Mitakidis

83'▲Y. Müller←▼N. Behr

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

GuggenbühlerEl-DorSchunckBraunMutzMüllerGünes

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 1–0 Karlsruher SC U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Karlsruher SC U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 8, 2025.

Goals: Ousmane Diallo (32').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund U19 1–0 Karlsruher SC U19