Karlovy Vary 0–0 České Budějovice II

Karlovy Vary

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

České Budějovice II

11/10/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 15Drahovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Karlovy Vary42%

×Draw22%

České Budějovice II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlovy VaryExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.69

Karlovy Vary

1.86

České Budějovice II

1.69

Karlovy Vary creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

1.65

creates per match

1.75

1.63

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Karlovy Vary

1.65

České Budějovice II

1.75

allows per match

Karlovy Vary

1.63

České Budějovice II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovy Vary ↓

České Budějovice II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Karlovy Vary or draw

64%

Karlovy Vary or České Budějovice II

78%

Draw or České Budějovice II

58%

Winning margin

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+

23%

České Budějovice II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals

84%

Karlovy Vary 2+ goals

55%

Karlovy Vary 3+ goals

28%

České Budějovice II 1+ goals

82%

České Budějovice II 2+ goals

50%

České Budějovice II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)

54%

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karlovy Vary scores more

42%

level

22%

České Budějovice II scores more

36%

Karlovy Vary at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlovy Vary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff