České Budějovice II 2–0 Karlovy Vary

České Budějovice II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karlovy Vary

10/22/2022

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 12SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

České Budějovice II49%

×Draw23%

Karlovy Vary28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České Budějovice IIExpected goals in this matchKarlovy Vary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.29

České Budějovice II

1.78

Karlovy Vary

1.29

České Budějovice II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

1.75

creates per match

1.06

1.52

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

České Budějovice II

1.75

Karlovy Vary

1.06

allows per match

České Budějovice II

1.52

Karlovy Vary

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Karlovy Vary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw

72%

České Budějovice II or Karlovy Vary

77%

Draw or Karlovy Vary

51%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+

27%

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals

83%

České Budějovice II 2+ goals

53%

České Budějovice II 3+ goals

26%

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals

72%

Karlovy Vary 2+ goals

37%

Karlovy Vary 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)

64%

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Karlovy Vary away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.78

Karlovy Vary attack 1.06 + České Budějovice II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

České Budějovice II scores more

49%

level

23%

Karlovy Vary scores more

28%

České Budějovice II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff