Karlovac 1919 1–0 Jadran LP: Result & Stats

Karlovac 1919

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jadran LP

9/20/2024

Second NL · Round 5Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191945%

×Draw27%

Jadran LP29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlovac 1919Expected goals in this matchJadran LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Karlovac 1919

1.40

Jadran LP

1.06

Karlovac 1919 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

1.87

creates per match

1.38

0.74

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Karlovac 1919

1.87

Jadran LP

1.38

allows per match

Karlovac 1919

0.74

Jadran LP

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Jadran LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw

71%

Karlovac 1919 or Jadran LP

73%

Draw or Jadran LP

55%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

21%

Jadran LP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

75%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

41%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

17%

Jadran LP 1+ goals

65%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

29%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

61%

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more

45%

level

27%

Jadran LP scores more

29%

Karlovac 1919 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff