Jadran LP 3–1 Karlovac 1919: Result & Stats

Jadran LP

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karlovac 1919

3/9/2024

Second NL · Round 18Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Jadran LP48%

×Draw25%

Karlovac 191927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran LPExpected goals in this matchKarlovac 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.15

Jadran LP

1.60

Karlovac 1919

1.15

Jadran LP creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

2.18

creates per match

1.26

1.03

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Jadran LP

2.18

Karlovac 1919

1.26

allows per match

Jadran LP

1.03

Karlovac 1919

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Karlovac 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw

73%

Jadran LP or Karlovac 1919

75%

Draw or Karlovac 1919

52%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+

25%

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals

80%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

47%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

22%

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

68%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

32%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

64%

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.60

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jadran LP scores more

48%

level

25%

Karlovac 1919 scores more

27%

Jadran LP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff