Karlovac 1919 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Karlovac 1919

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

11/17/2023

Second NL · Round 14Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191960%

×Draw23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlovac 1919Expected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.88

Karlovac 1919

1.83

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

0.88

Karlovac 1919 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

1.87

creates per match

1.02

0.74

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Karlovac 1919

1.87

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

allows per match

Karlovac 1919

0.74

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw

82%

Karlovac 1919 or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

77%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

40%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

35%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

84%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

54%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

28%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

59%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

22%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

77%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more

60%

level

23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

18%

Karlovac 1919 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff