Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–3 Karlovac 1919

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Karlovac 1919

4/6/2025

Second NL · Round 22Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac32%

×Draw27%

Karlovac 191940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchKarlovac 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.29

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.13

Karlovac 1919

1.29

Karlovac 1919 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

1.22

creates per match

1.26

1.31

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.22

Karlovac 1919

1.26

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.31

Karlovac 1919

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Karlovac 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

60%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Karlovac 1919

73%

Draw or Karlovac 1919

68%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

13%

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

68%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

31%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

11%

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

72%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

37%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

45%

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

32%

level

27%

Karlovac 1919 scores more

40%

Karlovac 1919 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff