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Karlovac 1919 vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
9/16/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 5Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191962%
×Draw22%
Grobničan Čavle16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovac 1919
1.90
Grobničan Čavle
0.86

Karlovac 1919 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Karlovac 1919
1.87
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Karlovac 1919
0.74
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw
84%
Karlovac 1919 or Grobničan Čavle
78%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
38%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
37%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
85%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
56%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
29%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
58%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
21%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
79%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more
62%
level
22%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
16%

Karlovac 1919 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlovac 1919 vs Grobničan Čavle

Karlovac 1919 beat Grobničan Čavle 2-1 in Second NL on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.