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Grobničan Čavle vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
4/19/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 24Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Grobničan Čavle38%
×Draw25%
Karlovac 191936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
1.41
Karlovac 1919
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.78
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
1.48
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
64%
Grobničan Čavle or Karlovac 1919
75%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
62%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
18%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
76%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
41%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
17%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
75%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
40%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
51%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
38%
level
25%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
36%

Grobničan Čavle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Grobničan Čavle 1–2 Karlovac 1919

Karlovac 1919 beat Grobničan Čavle 2-1 in Second NL on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.