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Karlburg vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Karlburg
Karlburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
3/29/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg42%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Münchberg35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlburg
1.76
Eintracht Münchberg
1.59

Karlburg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Karlburg
0.82
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Karlburg
2.24
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw
65%
Karlburg or Eintracht Münchberg
77%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
58%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+
22%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals
83%
Karlburg 2+ goals
52%
Karlburg 3+ goals
26%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
80%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
47%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)
55%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karlburg scores more
42%
level
23%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
35%

Karlburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Karlburg 3–1 Eintracht Münchberg

Karlburg beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg in Karlstadt.