Eintracht Münchberg 1–0 Karlburg: Result & Stats

Eintracht Münchberg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karlburg

9/7/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 10FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg45%

×Draw22%

Karlburg33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht MünchbergExpected goals in this matchKarlburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.56

Eintracht Münchberg

1.85

Karlburg

1.56

Eintracht Münchberg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.82

creates per match

0.94

2.18

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg

0.82

Karlburg

0.94

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg

2.18

Karlburg

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Karlburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw

67%

Eintracht Münchberg or Karlburg

78%

Draw or Karlburg

55%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

24%

Karlburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

84%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

55%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

28%

Karlburg 1+ goals

79%

Karlburg 2+ goals

46%

Karlburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

58%

Karlburg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

45%

level

22%

Karlburg scores more

33%

Eintracht Münchberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Münchberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff