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Karlburg vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Karlburg
Karlburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
4/25/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg26%
×Draw22%
ASV Neumarkt52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlburg
1.29
ASV Neumarkt
1.91

ASV Neumarkt creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Karlburg
0.82
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Karlburg
2.24
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw
48%
Karlburg or ASV Neumarkt
78%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
74%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+
11%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals
72%
Karlburg 2+ goals
37%
Karlburg 3+ goals
14%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
85%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
57%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)
33%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karlburg scores more
26%
level
22%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
52%

ASV Neumarkt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlburg vs ASV Neumarkt

Karlburg and ASV Neumarkt drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg in Karlstadt.