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ASV Neumarkt vs Karlburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karlburg
Karlburg
10/3/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 14Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASV Neumarkt62%
×Draw19%
Karlburg19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
2.32
Karlburg
1.21

ASV Neumarkt creates 92% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Karlburg
0.94

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Karlburg
2.88

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Karlburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
81%
ASV Neumarkt or Karlburg
81%
Draw or Karlburg
38%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
40%
Karlburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
90%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
67%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
40%
Karlburg 1+ goals
70%
Karlburg 2+ goals
34%
Karlburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
77%
Karlburg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.32

Karlburg attack 0.94 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
62%
level
19%
Karlburg scores more
19%

ASV Neumarkt at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ASV Neumarkt 1–0 Karlburg

ASV Neumarkt beat Karlburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Deininger Weg in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.