Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

FT

1 – 2

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

8/7/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra44%

×Draw24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karkonosze Jelenia GóraExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.65

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.36

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

1.46

creates per match

1.39

1.34

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.46

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.34

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw

68%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

76%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

56%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

81%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

49%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

74%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

39%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

58%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

44%

level

24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

32%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff