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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
2 – 1
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
11/20/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry47%
×Draw24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.71
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.29

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 33% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
71%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
76%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
53%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
25%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
82%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
51%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
72%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
37%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
62%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
47%
level
24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
29%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.